Ups and Downs on the Farm: August Edition

Entering the last month of the season, things are changing.

Both short-season teams have wrapped up, Vancouver has secured another playoff spot, and the D-Jays are clinging to a long-shot chance at doing the same. Playoffs aside, both A-ball teams will conclude their regular season on September 8. Double-A goes a week further, and Triple-A concludes on September 22. I wrapped up the SS teams below and the others will be there next time.

Triple-A Buffalo

While he’s no longer considered a prospect, I’ll make an exception for Nathan Lukes. If losing two months to injury is regarded as a downturn, then hitting .340 in August since you got back and earning a call to the Majors is definitely an Up.

If you really want a place to tip your hat on this roster, it has to be RF Alan Roden. After a promotion in mid-June, it took him 26 games to adjust to the new level, only heating up as July was closing out. Since he found his stroke again, he’s slashed .374/.446/.598/1.044 in 107 AB. That’s a king-sized Up.

Another goes to Luis De Los Santos (who will be activated with the Jays by the time you read this), who’s hit .849 since demotion, and another goes to Will Robertson, who’s trying to close an up-and-down season strong with a .835 OPS in August. Catcher Phil Clarke has dialed up a notch with a .775 OPS in August.

Hayden Juenger was turning up on some Top 10 lists in the spring of 2023 after zooming to Triple-A a little more than a year after being drafted, but 2023 was a pretty ugly effort to build on that success. That lapped over into this season, with a similarly ugly 7.15 ERA in April. But since then, it’s been a tidy 2.52. He gets an Up for the month and most of the season. Fellow reliever Mason Fluharty, on the other hand, has slowed his roll somewhat in August, with a 6.10 ERA in the month. Gotta give that a Down.

Speaking of going sideways, I’m obliged to talk about one of my favourite under-the-radar prospects in a negative way. Trenton Wallace finally got what seemed an overdue promotion from AA (where he had dominated) as August began and things went poorly. In Double-A, he’d walked 3.35 per nine this season while striking out 10.8 per nine, but once promoted, he lost the plate. In 20 1/3 innings in Triple-A, he’s walked 19 and struck out 17. That’s bad. But there’s an interesting backstory. In 2023, he didn’t have a mid-season promotion of significant length, but in ’22, he went from Dunedin to Vancouver in mid-July. In his first five starts at the new level, he walked 24 in 17 2/3 IP (he’d walked 2.88/9 in Dunedin) but turned it around and walked only seven in the 21 2/3 innings to finish the year. He’s had 5 Triple-A starts so far. But there’s reason to believe he’ll find a handle. (And as I write, today, September 1, he threw three shutout innings with six K and zero walks)

Double-A New Hampshire

Newcomer RJ Schreck couldn’t have made a better impression on his new organization. He’d been having a good year in High-A for Seattle, but he’s been up in every category since joining the Fisher Cats. In 23 games at NH, he has a 1.006 OPS. Give him an Up.

3B Alex De Jesus had put up an entirely pedestrian season through the end of July. It’s the sort of thing org players do rather than legit prospects. But in August, his OPS was .886, so he deserves a nob and hopefully, he’s figured something out. 1B Rainer Nunez had a very nice May to pick up a cold April start but settled into a good-not-great stretch through June and July. August, though, has been his best month, hitting .343 with a .928 OPS. Give him an Up.

There’s not a lot of up/down movement with this pitching staff, some promoted from and some promoted to, many don’t have a sample worth analyzing. Others are just, more or less, doing what they’ve been doing. I can mention, however, that Lazaro Estrada is down compared to what he did in Vancouver, alternating between good and bad outings. His ERA at the lower level was 1.96, and at Double-A, so far, it’s 4.22, which is worth noticing but will likely resolve as he adjusts to the level.

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High-A Vancouver

Big Ol’ Boy 1B Payton Williams has had his best month as a pro with a .920 OPS Big Up for the big man. Even hotter was OF  Jace Bohrofen, who hit .368 in August with a robust 1.055 OPS after an ice-cold July. Adrian Pinto is finally on an offensive roll after losing most of the season to injury. It’s just 12 games, but they’re hot ones. On the flip side, newly acquired IF Cutter Coffey has really struggled since the deal. He’s had a solid walk rate, but otherwise, you have to give him a Down to a .162 BA and a .566 OPS.

Kendy Rojas just keeps getting better. Coming off an injury in the last week of June, he ran a 2.61 ERA through the first of August, which is really good, then he ran his season ERA all the way down to 1.79 through four starts in August. He had his worst game of the season Friday night, but his ERA this month is still 2.37, so he’s allowed.

An Up stacked on top of an up. Carson Pierce, an undrafted free agent in 2023, was easy to overlook. He had a fine but not eye-popping line coming into July. Then, he ran off a string of six starts, which he collectively allowed only two earned runs. That’s a 0.87 ERA and a 2.56 season ERA to that point. That gets you an Up. The catch is that his season, and effectively next season, ended just two outs into his next start. Just when he was putting himself on the prospect list radar, he ended up on the long Tommy John list instead.

Juran Watts-Brown got promoted at the beginning of July and didn’t have a smooth adjustment. In 20 July innings, he walked 17 and posted a 6.75 ERA, but he seems to have found his footing in August. His stat line in August looks a lot like his last month in Dunedin, including the walk rate and his ERA was 3.86 for the month. Mustachioed lefty reliever and strikeout machine Kai Peterson got promoted and got better. He hasn’t been bad since May, but he seems to be polishing his game as he goes. Fellow reliever Alex Amalfi was quite good in June and July (four ER in 29 2/3 IP) but seems to be running out of gas, having allowed 11 ER in 17 August IP.

Low-A Dunedin

At the very end of July, catcher Aaron Parker led the first wave of 2024 draftees to bolster the D-Jays lineup. The sixth rounder was clearly ready, running a .939 OPS through the end of August. Here, the Up/Down format has to be laid aside because there’s no previous sample on the new draftees. I can only tell you who started well. Even better has been OF Eddie Micheletti, Jr who’s OPS is .980 and right there with them is CF Nick Mitchell at .929, while 3B Sean Keys, who’s at .809, is a few steps back. Another catcher, Brock Tibbits, is hitting .292 with little pop so far.

As for the guys who have been here, Arjun Nimmala continues to stand out from the crowd. He hasn’t even gone consecutive games without a hit in over a month. His OPS for August was .871, down a tiny tic from July, but in July, he hit .222, and in August, it was .296, so possibly moving beyond just power. On the whole, including today (September 1), his line since he came back to the D-Jays is .272/.315/.586/.902, so his status as a top prospect is legit.

The class of this staff has clearly been Fernando Perez, but he hasn’t pitched since August 9 (while not being placed on the IL), and his last three outings would lead the casual observer to suppose that he’s just gassed. He’s at 82 IP, having never touched 50 in a season before. Technically, that’s a Down (just on stats), but I’m not worried. Unless we hear word he’s visiting a surgeon.

Speaking of surgeons, breakout prospect Nolan Perry, who came into August with a 1.96 ERA, got roughed up in his first start in August, then walked five in his next one before …you can guess, right? After a long season of promotions, the last of the guys who have pitched well in relief and been here the whole season is Elander Alcade. He was quite good in June and fell back some in July, but he’s rebounded for 1,15 ERA in August. Overall, the stats don’t scream dominant, but he’s been effective.

Florida Complex League

There’s only one really notable stat line here, and that belongs to 3B Kendry Chinos, who finished with an .845 OPS, and at that, there are no standout underlying stats like home run power or a high walk rate. It’s just that everyone else was so BAD. The only guy here who was really supposed to be special was RF Emannuel Bonilla and he fell apart mid-season. As I’ve noted before, as of June 8, his OPS was .847 over 25 games. Since then, through the end of the season (28 games), he went 8-for-100 with seven walks and 46 strikeouts and only two XBH.

The one stat line you’d notice among pitchers is reliever Luis Torres, who finished with a 2.17 ERA, but in short season samples, stats don’t tell you a lot, especially for relievers. Case in point: SP Daniel Guerra. Since the FCL season ended, he’s joined the D-Jays after finishing well in the Complex and has been impressed. But his ERA at the lower level was 6.42, so scouting the stats is, shall we say, flawed, at least when you’re looking at guys who didn’t dominate.

Dominican Summer League

If memory serves, in past years, I’ve been less than impressed with the statistical results of the Jays’ DSL team. One or two guys often jump off the page (As Francisco Perez did a couple of years back), but the list is usually short.

This year, several hitters earned a tip of the hat. Third Baseman Aldo Gaxiola had the highest OPS on the team at .847, and right behind him is Randy Soto, a switch-hitting catcher (and 1B) who built a .485 OBP by drawing 44 walks in 47 games. Shortstop Jarlin Soto (presumably no relation) also drew 44 walks and ran his OBP up to .428. Another catcher, bonus baby Franklin Rojas, also had more walks than strikeouts but lost the first 1/3 of the season before joining the team. IF Rafael Flores had a .409 OBP and stole 19 bases.

On the pitching side, three starters set themselves apart. Silvano Hechavarria, a 21-year-old (old for the level) Cuban signed in June, was dominant. In 49 innings over ten starts, he struck out 57, walked 16, and allowed 28 hits to record a 1.84 ERA. It’s a mug’s game to judge prospect status on stats alone, but given his age, it looks like he’ll slide right into the D-Jays rotation next year and start popping up in prospect list discussions.

Almost as impressive was 18-year-old Brazilian Sann Omasako, who finished with a 2.44 ERA after striking out 47 and walking just 4 in 55.1 IP. A couple of steps further back was Eduar Gonzalez, who struck out 51 in 47 2/3 innings but didn’t limit contact, and the teammates above did not. The lefty finished with a 3.78 ERA after a rough August. In relief, Ramon Suarez was a beast. The 20-year-old lefty struck out 36 while walking only five in 22 2/3 IP and finished with a 0.79 ERA.