Colts’ 2024-25 Stat Predictions: Offense

Indianapolis Colts OTA Offseason Workout
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Disclaimer: This is of course purely a speculative article, not taking into account any possible injuries, and is of course subject to change later before the season starts.

Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson – 3.000 passing yards, 1.000 rushing yards, 35 total TDs, 15 total turnovers

The massive question mark around AR is of course whether he will take good care of his body over a 17 game season. Scrambling quarterbacks can survive, but it is imperative that the Colts’ coaching staff emphasized avoiding unnecessary collisions. As this is speculating he misses no games, I expect Richardson to put up eye-popping numbers, and produce plenty of explosive plays, but considering he is still a “rookie”, mistakes in judgement are bound to happen, resulting in some muddy games and avoidable turnovers. Those numbers should be enough for a #1 fantasy ranking, but we Colts’ fans should temper our expectations a bit as I am seeing potential MVP candidate thrown out there. Expect inconsistency and mistakes sprinkled in between the popcorn-popper plays.

Running backs

Jonathan Taylor – 1.300 all-purpose yards, 9 total TDs

Taylor’s last season was a big disappointment, starting off with the contract dispute and then of course the limitations of the Colts’ offense without Anthony Richardson at quarterback. Still, I expect a bounce back year for Taylor, as all things are now in place for him to return to that All-Pro caliber form. A more balanced offense should help open up holes for him, and right now there is no other proven back on the roster to take snaps or touchdowns away from him.

Wide receivers

Michael Pittman Jr. – 90 catches, 1.000 receiving yards, 8 TDs

There are two trains of thought going through my head regarding Michael Pittman Jr.’s outlook for next season, one optimistic and one pessimistic. The optimistic one is about how he will finally get the chance to play with a talented quarterback, who can lead an offense, and has a rocket for an arm, MPJ has managed to be consistent despite playing with 5 different quarterbacks, and arguably the only good one of those was Philip Rivers. The negative one is not so much about him, as he already proved himself as a receiver, but backup quarterbacks tend to funnel the ball more to their #1 receivers, and with the Colts having a plethora of weapons in the passing game, there are only so many targets to go around. I think his 28.5% target share will come down to a more healthy +-20%, and with that his numbers as a whole should see some regression.

Josh Downs – 70 catches, 750 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Downs surpassed all expectations his rookie season, and is now entrenched as the Colts’ primary slot receiver. The Colts’ offensive scheme with Gardner Minshew seemed to really benefit him, and hopefully it worked well for his confidence entering the NFL. While Downs was not a vertical threat, his ability to generate quick separation makes him unique in this Colts’ offense, and I imagine Steichen will use him a lot as a chain mover in short and intermediate routes.

Alec Pierce – 40 catches , 550 receiving yards, 6 TDs

I have said it plenty of times before, but Alec Pierce was the biggest loser from AR’s injury. Having such a limited skillset (vertical threat specialist), Pierce went from a quarterback that could keep his eyes down the field and avoid pressure at the same time, while also being able to throw the ball 60+ yards, to a quarterback that pannicked in the face of non-existent pressure, and did not have a particularly strong arm. Pierce’s stock has never been lower, more so right now with the addition of Adonai Mitchell, but I expect him to come out and have a productive season.

Adonai Mitchell – 40 catches, 400 receiving yards, 3 TDs

Speaking of AD Mitchell, I think he has a much higher ceiling than Pierce because of a much more diverse skillset, but he is still young and just a rookie. I expect him to start off behind Pierce in the depth chart, and it will be one of the most exciting battles to watch in training camp. If any of the trio above were to miss some time then Mitchell’s outlook will be much better.

Tight ends

Jelani Woods – 40 catches, 450 receiving yards, 5 TDs

My expectations for Jelani were big last year, and they remain elevated this season. He can contribute both as a pass-catcher and a blocker, and with his massive frame he is an enticing option in the red-zone. I never understood why Bowers was mocked to the Colts, as it seems like the general public forgot about how fluid Woods looked his rookie season. My best advice to you would be to make sure you get him with the final pick of your fantasy draft, as his upside is tremendous.

Kylen Granson – 20 catches, 200 receiving yards, 1 TD

Granson was the Colts’ leading tight end last season, but that is not saying much as the position did not see much use. I expected more from him with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, and my expectations for him with AR back and the amount of weapons the Colts have is not too high. As a depth/receiving tight end, he is a good piece to have around.

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Title: Colts’ 2024-25 Stat Predictions: Offense
Author: Mateo Caliz

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