MLB Betting Preview (June 7): Blue Jays vs. A’s predictions

After posting back-to-back wins over the Baltimore Orioles, the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series with the A’s in Oakland on Friday night.

 

 

Toronto stormed back to post a pair of wins after dropping the first two games of their series with the Orioles earlier this week in Toronto to earn a four-game split. The team is now two games shy of .500 heading into its series with lowly Oakland. It’s a real opportunity to get back to the .500 mark before some tough series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox, and New York Yankees later this month.

Oakland, meanwhile, has dropped four consecutive series after losing two of three to the Seattle Mariners earlier this week. The A’s are fourth in the American League West Division and have a -67 run differential this season. Only the Chicago White Sox (-152) have a worse run differential in the AL.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Blue Jays and A’s courtesy of bet365:

Blue Jays vs. A’s odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds -165
A’s Moneyline Odds +140
Runline Odds Blue Jays -1.5 (+105), A’s +1.5 (-125)
Over/Under Over 8 runs (+100), Under 8 runs (-120)
Time/Date June 7, 9:40 p.m. ET
TV Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (30-32 SU, 30-32 ATS, 28-33-1 o/u)

The Blue Jays are 23-3 when they score five or more runs this season, but they’re only averaging 3.9 runs per game (24th in the majors) and 7.7 hits per game (23rd in MLB). They were able to put six runs on the board Thursday afternoon against the Orioles, thanks to a three-RBI day from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who also swatted his seventh homer of the season.

Toronto’s bullpen has been a sticking point all season long, and the unit came very close to imploding Thursday, surrendering four earned runs to Baltimore. The team’s relievers have allowed 39 home runs to the opposition, by far the most in the majors, while also carrying a bloated 4.85 ERA into action Friday. With Jordan Romano currently on the injured list and setup man Erik Swanson demoted to the minors for poor performance, manager John Schneider has been forced to shuffle the deck at the back end of his bullpen and give more high-leverage opportunities to Yimi Garcia and Chad Green.

Betting Oakland A’s (25-39 SU, 32-32 ATS, 29-34-1 o/u)

Expectations were low for the A’s coming into this season with a projected season win total of just 56.5 at bet365, but the team has actually performed slightly better than expected to this point. The A’s have a solid 15-15 record in day games this season (something to keep in mind for the two day games scheduled this weekend vs. Toronto).

Like Toronto, Oakland also struggles offensively, averaging just 3.7 runs per game (27th in MLB). But the A’s do have a handful of batters that can supply power, such as outfielder Brent Rooker who has blasted 12 home runs. Catcher Shea Langeliers also has 12 homers and the team’s 74 long balls this season ranks fifth in the majors.

Rooker and breakout closer Mason Miller, who has an incredible 52 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings, are prime candidates to be traded later in the season. As always, the low-budget A’s will be looking to restock their prospect cupboard by trading away overachievers on the roster.

 

 

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (6-6, 4.13 ERA, 8.68 K/9, 1.45 WHIP)

Bassitt has earned the win in each of his last three starts and he’s allowed three earned runs or less in six straights outings. The veteran righty tossed five innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts last time out against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nothing jumps off the page while examining Bassitt’s Statcast metrics, but he does baffle hitters with eight different pitch types. He’s pitched well historically against Oakland, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Oakland: LHP Hogan Harris (0-0, 3.14 ERA, 9.42 K/9, 1.26 WHIP)

Harris wasn’t originally scheduled to pitch on Friday but the A’s decided to bump Harris up and move Luis Medina to Saturday. The lefty will be making just his second start of the season. In his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, Harris threw 5 2/3 innings while allowing three runs – one earned – while striking out seven. His fastball averages a pedestrian 94 mph, but his changeup is lethal, with batters hitting .000 against it in a small sample size. Harris also features a slow curveball that averages 71 inches of drop, well above the MLB average. He’s particularly tough on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .176/.263/.235 slash line.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for cool temperatures around 14 C and cloudy skies. Winds will be blowing out to right field at 11 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • The Blue Jays haven’t scored a run in the first inning in 28 consecutive games.
  • The over is 5-1 in Toronto’s last six games.
  • The under is 4-0 in Oakland’s last four games.

MLB player prop trends

  • After a miserable month of May, Blue Jays designated hitter Justin Turner could be turning a corner, amassing six hits over his last three games. He’s slashing an outstanding 349/.383/.558 against left-handed pitching this year.
  • Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has been falling short of oddsmakers’ expectations of him getting two or more hits, failing to do in nine of his last 10 games. He’s -220 to record under 1.5 hits.

Blue Jays vs. A’s predictions

  • NRFI (no run first inning): -120. This red-hot trend can’t be ignored until Toronto’s streak of first-inning offensive woes is broken. The A’s haven’t scored a run in the first inning in 53 of their 64 games (88% hit rate) and the NRFI is also 10-2 in Bassitt’s 12 starts this season. If you want to play it a little safer, you can bet on just Toronto to not score in the top of the first inning at less enticing -240 odds.
  • Under 8 runs: -120. Both of these teams have struggled mightily offensively this season and trend towards the under. Back a low-scoring affair somewhere in the 4-2 or 5-2 range.

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Title: MLB Betting Preview (June 7): Blue Jays vs. A’s predictions
Author: Greg Warren

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