One of the advanced analytics statistics that has gained traction in recent years is win probability. The intent here is to provide context on how likely a given team is to win the game.
What is cool is that win probability can be calculated for every play, allowing for an analysis of which plays had the biggest impact on the game. This is calculated as win probability added which is created by subtracting the win probability on the play before from the win probability on the current play.
Using this calculation, we can then examine just how costly a given play was. For the game between the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders, the most memorable play in many ways was Zach Wilson’s late game interception that felt as though it all but ended the game.
Robert Spillane gets the interception. Zach Wilson makes yet another mistake in a massive moment. pic.twitter.com/YfE4NlNabw
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) November 13, 2023
But did the play actually end the Jets chances or did it just feel that way?
Well, according to WPA, the answer is “it might not have actually ended the game but it might as well have.” Prior to that play, the Jets had a 48% chance of winning the game. After? Only 4%. Ouch. Adding to that, after that play the Jets highest chance of victory never exceeded 20%, which is a far cry from the 48% chance they started with prior to that throw being attempted.
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Title: Statistically speaking, how costly was quarterback Zach Wilson’s late game interception?